OLUR — first-half goals scanner

Top goal candidates todayTop 12 of 12 analysed · ranked by model FH O1.5 probability

Tier League

#	Fixture (kick-off)	Model O1.5	vs league	Betfair O1.5	Edge (best market)	Verdict
1	JK Tammeka Tartu II v JK Tallinna Kalev U21 Estonia — Estonia Esiliiga B · 2026-07-20 14:00 UTC	63%	1.25× vs 51%	1.04 96%	—	STRONG_FH_O15
2	Sporting KC II v Minnesota United II USA — USA MLS Next Pro · 2026-07-20 00:00 UTC	53%	1.19× vs 44%	1.99 50%	+2.3% (O1.5)	STRONG_FH_O15 +2.3% (O1.5)	↓ pick
3	KPV v RoPS Finland — Finland Ykkönen · 2026-07-20 15:30 UTC	44%	0.93× vs 47%	1.85 54%	+11.6% (U0.5)	NO_BET +11.6% (U0.5)
4	Real Monarchs v Tacoma Defiance USA — USA MLS Next Pro · 2026-07-20 01:30 UTC	42%	0.94× vs 44%	2.18 46%	+1.1% (U0.5)	NO_BET +1.1% (U0.5)
5	Super Nova v Grobiņa Latvia — Latvia Virsliga · 2026-07-20 16:00 UTC	37%	0.95× vs 39%	3.10 32%	+10.8% (O1.5)	NO_BET +10.8% (O1.5)
6	FS Jelgava v Rīgas FS Latvia — Latvia Virsliga · 2026-07-20 15:00 UTC	36%	0.92× vs 39%	2.22 45%	+9.4% (U0.5)	NO_BET +9.4% (U0.5)
7	TPS v Ilves Finland — Finland Veikkausliiga · 2026-07-20 15:00 UTC	34%	0.92× vs 37%	2.44 41%	—	NO_BET
8	Kalmar v Malmö FF Sweden — Sweden Allsvenskan · 2026-07-20 17:00 UTC	34%	0.94× vs 36%	2.50 40%	+4.4% (U0.5)	NO_BET +4.4% (U0.5)
9	Mariehamn v Lahti Finland — Finland Veikkausliiga · 2026-07-20 16:00 UTC	26%	0.71× vs 37%	2.56 39%	+9.2% (U1.5)	NO_BET +9.2% (U1.5)
10	América RN v Gama Brazil — Brazil Serie D · 2026-07-19 22:00 UTC	24%	0.89× vs 26%	3.85 26%	—	NO_BET
11	Örgryte v Djurgården Sweden — Sweden Allsvenskan · 2026-07-20 17:00 UTC	23%	0.65× vs 36%	2.16 46%	—	NO_BET
12	Sūduva v Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania — Lithuania A Lyga · 2026-07-20 15:45 UTC	19%	0.63× vs 30%	3.25 31%	+9.5% (U1.5)	NO_BET +9.5% (U1.5)

Recommended picksSubset of the ranking that cleared a verdict tier — full reasoning

Sporting KC II v Minnesota United II

USA — USA MLS Next Pro · 2026-07-20 00:00 UTC

STRONG_FH_O15 ██████░░░░ 6/10

BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 1.99 (Betfair Exchange)

Net edge +2.3% (gross +4.9%) Confidence: medium-high

Betfair: £0 matched · £10 to back @ 1.99 · lay 2.10 (£18)

Model FH O1.552.7%

Market FH O1.550.3%

League avg FH O1.544.5%

Why this pick

Model FH O1.5 = 52.7% (league base rate 44.5%)
Home team FH attack at home: 0.76× league avg (scored 0.58/game, n=43)
Away team FH defence away: 1.17× league avg (conceded 1.00/game, n=46)
Combined Poisson λ_fh = 1.77 expected first-half goals (vs league avg 1.50)
Total xG (pre-match, FootyStats): 2.70 (home 1.36, away 1.34)
H2H last 10 matches: 70% hit FH O1.5, avg 2.4 FH goals
Recent home form (FH goals last 5): [2, 0, 2, 2, 0]
Recent away form (FH goals last 5): [3, 2, 0, 0, 1]

Risks

Check Betfair Exchange liquidity at recommended price before placing
Past calibration does not guarantee future performance

Recently resolvedLast 14 days

League	Fixture	Pick	Outcome	P&L (£10 stake)
Lithuania — Lithuania 1 Lyga	Tauras v FA Šiauliai II	BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.00	HIT (HT 2-0)	£+9.50
Iceland — Iceland 1. Deild	Grindavík v ÍR	BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.04	MISS (HT 0-0)	£-10.00
Kazakhstan — Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Premier League	Okzhetpes v Zhetysu	BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.92	MISS (HT 1-0)	£-10.00
Iceland — Iceland 2. Deild	KFG v Kári	BACK FH UNDER 1.5 @ 2.46	MISS (HT 0-2)	£-10.00
Uzbekistan — Uzbekistan Uzbekistan Super League	Pakhtakor v Lokomotiv	BACK FH UNDER 0.5 @ 3.85	MISS (HT 1-0)	£-10.00
USA — USA MLS Next Pro	Chicago Fire II v New York RB II	BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 1.84	HIT (HT 2-0)	£+7.98
Iceland — Iceland 2. Deild	Kári v Fjardabyggd / Leiknir	BACK FH UNDER 1.5 @ 2.10	HIT (HT 1-0)	£+10.45
Finland — Finland Kakkonen	SJK-juniorit Youth v TP-47	BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 1.65	MISS (HT 0-0)	£-10.00
Sweden — Sweden Allsvenskan	Hammarby v Kalmar	BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.20	MISS (HT 1-0)	£-10.00
Lithuania — Lithuania A Lyga	Kauno Žalgiris v Panevėžys	BACK FH UNDER 0.5 @ 3.95	MISS (HT 2-0)	£-10.00
Finland — Finland Veikkausliiga	Lahti v HJK	BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.46	MISS (HT 1-0)	£-10.00
Paraguay — Paraguay Division Intermedia	Atlético Tembetary v Independiente FBC	BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.66	HIT (HT 2-2)	£+15.77
USA — USA USL Championship	Miami FC II v Birmingham Legion	BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.28	HIT (HT 1-0)	£+2.66

Performance

Scope	n	Hit %	Net ROI (5% comm)
Overall	54	51.9%	+2.75%
ELITE_FH_O15	4	75.0%	+18.70%
STRONG_FH_O15	48	50.0%	-6.28%
FH_O05_ONLY	2	50.0%	+187.50%
Paraguay — Paraguay Division Intermedia	1	100.0%	+157.70%
Sweden — Sweden Superettan	1	100.0%	+121.60%
Lithuania — Lithuania 1 Lyga	1	100.0%	+95.00%
Finland — Finland Ykkönen	4	50.0%	+89.41%
Lithuania — Lithuania A Lyga	3	66.7%	+71.17%
Sweden — Sweden Ettan North	3	100.0%	+53.20%
Norway — Norway 2. Division	2	100.0%	+51.78%
Norway — Norway 2 Division Group 1	3	66.7%	+45.83%
Brazil — Brazil Serie C	2	50.0%	+32.65%
Sweden — Sweden Allsvenskan	3	66.7%	+29.05%
Norway — Norway Eliteserien	1	100.0%	+23.75%
Latvia — Latvia Virsliga	3	66.7%	+19.87%
Norway — Norway 2 Division Group 2	1	100.0%	+18.05%
Iceland — Iceland 1. Deild	2	50.0%	-1.55%
USA — USA MLS Next Pro	2	50.0%	-10.10%
USA — USA USL Championship	3	66.7%	-13.70%
Iceland — Iceland 2. Deild	3	33.3%	-31.83%
Finland — Finland Veikkausliiga	3	33.3%	-55.27%
Finland — Finland Kakkonen	5	20.0%	-65.18%
Denmark — Denmark 1st Division	1	0.0%	-100.00%
Sweden — Sweden Division 2 Norra Svealand	1	0.0%	-100.00%
Kazakhstan — Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Premier League	3	0.0%	-100.00%
Norway — Norway First Division	1	0.0%	-100.00%
Iceland — Iceland Úrvalsdeild	1	0.0%	-100.00%
Uzbekistan — Uzbekistan Uzbekistan Super League	1	0.0%	-100.00%

Top candidates outside your leaguesTop 10 by Betfair-implied O1.5 · market price only, no model

#	Fixture	Implied O1.5	Back	Lay (£ size)	Matched £
1	Sporting Kansas City II v Minnesota United FC II US MLS Next Pro League · 2026-07-20 00:00 UTC	50%	1.99	2.10 (£29)	£0
2	Orgryte v Djurgardens Swedish Allsvenskan · 2026-07-20 17:00 UTC	46%	2.16	2.40 (£52)	£0
3	Real Monarchs SLC v Tacoma Defiance US MLS Next Pro League · 2026-07-20 01:30 UTC	46%	2.18	2.32 (£25)	£0
4	FK Jelgava v Rigas Futbola Skola Latvian Virsliga · 2026-07-20 15:00 UTC	45%	2.22	2.46 (£50)	£0
5	Blooming Santa Cruz v Real Tomayapo Bolivian Liga de Futbol Profesional · 2026-07-20 00:30 UTC	42%	2.38	2.50 (£26)	£0

If a league keeps appearing here, consider swapping it into your FootyStats selection so we can model it properly.

League usefulness reportWhich of your 50 leagues are actually working — lifetime stats

League	Total picks	Resolved	Hit %	Net ROI	Last pick
Finland — Finland Kakkonen	5	5	20%	-65.2%	2026-07-12
Finland — Finland Ykkönen	4	4	50%	+89.4%	2026-07-04
Lithuania — Lithuania A Lyga	3	3	67%	+71.2%	2026-07-11
Sweden — Sweden Ettan North	3	3	100%	+53.2%	2026-06-21
Norway — Norway 2 Division Group 1	3	3	67%	+45.8%	2026-06-27
Sweden — Sweden Allsvenskan	3	3	67%	+29.1%	2026-07-12
Latvia — Latvia Virsliga	3	3	67%	+19.9%	2026-07-05
USA — USA USL Championship	3	3	67%	-13.7%	2026-07-05
Iceland — Iceland 2. Deild	3	3	33%	-31.8%	2026-07-17
Finland — Finland Veikkausliiga	3	3	33%	-55.3%	2026-07-11
Kazakhstan — Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Premier League	3	3	0%	-100.0%	2026-07-18
Norway — Norway 2. Division	2	2	100%	+51.8%	2026-06-14
Brazil — Brazil Serie C	2	2	50%	+32.7%	2026-07-04
Iceland — Iceland 1. Deild	2	2	50%	-1.6%	2026-07-18
USA — USA MLS Next Pro	3	2	50%	-10.1%	2026-07-20
Paraguay — Paraguay Division Intermedia	1	1	100%	+157.7%	2026-07-07
Sweden — Sweden Superettan	1	1	100%	+121.6%	2026-06-21
Lithuania — Lithuania 1 Lyga	1	1	100%	+95.0%	2026-07-19
Norway — Norway Eliteserien	1	1	100%	+23.8%	2026-05-30
Norway — Norway 2 Division Group 2	1	1	100%	+18.0%	2026-06-27
Denmark — Denmark 1st Division	1	1	0%	-100.0%	2026-05-30
Sweden — Sweden Division 2 Norra Svealand	1	1	0%	-100.0%	2026-05-30
Norway — Norway First Division	1	1	0%	-100.0%	2026-06-14
Iceland — Iceland Úrvalsdeild	1	1	0%	-100.0%	2026-06-16
Uzbekistan — Uzbekistan Uzbekistan Super League	1	1	0%	-100.0%	2026-07-17
Sweden — Sweden Division 2	4	0	—	—	2026-06-24
China — China China League Two	1	0	—	—	2026-06-28

Leagues with 0 picks (or sustained negative ROI) are candidates to swap out of your FootyStats selection. Top external leagues from the panel above are candidates to swap in.